Stand by your clipboards! We are only 18 months from the start of the short general election campaign. So this conference season is the last major opportunity to publicly debate programmes for manifestos.

What do we learn from Lib Dem conference about the way they’ll fight the next election? It’s going to have to be more than cheaper school uniforms and more expensive plastic bags, isn’t it?

As the only way they can be in government is in coalition, there is obviously much interest in who they would be willing to form a coalition with. New election coordinator Paddy Ashdown suggested Labour, but Nick Clegg was much more circumspect. This is just one of the many areas where the Lib Dems are at best undecided and at worst, hopelessly split. Ashdown pronounces that they’re a ‘left wing party’. This is clearly not the view of Clegg, David Laws, Danny Alexander, Jeremy Browne and others who will be the public face of the Lib Dems as ministers.

But even to be in a position to argue about a coalition partner, they need to have enough MPs to be worthwhile for any other party to link with. Whether this happens depends on two factors.

First, there does seem to be some evidence that where they are well dug in as incumbents and have maintained their party activists, they can do better in holding onto seats than overall poll numbers might suggest – this was the case in the Eastleigh by-election where, given the unpopularity of the government and the reason for the by-election in the first place, you might have expected them to be trounced.

But they still need to have a convincing programme and defence of their record for the voters. They can’t just depend on being the repository of protest votes – that is a position which now seems to rest with UKIP. They’ve been in government – what do they have to show for it?

Their record will be a difficult sell – any credit for an economic recovery seems sure to go to the Tories; they will have to answer for their U-turns on their core issues – tuition fee increases, no meaningful constitutional reform despite this being Nick Clegg’s portfolio and main job in government – and not even being particularly successful at stopping stuff which they claimed to be against like welfare cuts, immigration clampdowns and counter-terror measures.

When it comes to putting together a convincing plan for the future, their lack of a uniting political philosophy is on clear display at this conference. Will they want to campaign for a continuation of austerity economics? Lib Dem activists are clearly unhappy at this; Vince Cable is unwilling to publicly back his leader on it, but Nick Clegg appears wedded to Osbornomics as the justification for entering into the coalition in the first place. He has been a wholehearted supporter of the Tories’ trashing of Labour’s economic record and the smothering of the early signs of recovery evident in 2010. How will this evident disunity be managed, and turned into a positive economic message for 2015? On other issues, given their failure to deliver any meaningful public service reform or even to prevent damaging Tory policies in schools and health, what will a Lib Dem public service manifesto look like? Even in the areas where they have cabinet ministers – business and energy – it’s difficult to see what a positive policy platform would be. Ed Davey’s speech to their conference on Sunday was particularly uninspiring.

To what extent do these tensions exist for us at our own conference? This year I’ve managed to resist the temptation of trekking to a strange city, paying a lot of money for a hotel room, drinking and eating stuff that’s bad for me for a week and traipsing around hotel suites for the ‘hot’ fringe event! I will experience the Labour conference in the same way as those we hope to vote for us at the next election – from afar, if at all! And this is the challenge that those attending conference should remember. How will conference help us to win in 2015?

First, we shouldn’t get into a debate about coalition, because unlike the Lib Dems, we have a realistic chance of forming a majority government and that’s what we should be aiming at.

Second, we’ve got to start seeing some flesh on the bones of the policy review.  I don’t subscribe to the view of others that Labour was too quiet over the summer.  I heard Andy Burnham talking about a National Care Service; Caroline Flint outlining major reform of the energy market; Chris Leslie pointing out that families are already £1500 poorer under this government; Liam Byrne destroying the argument for the bedroom tax; Stephen Twigg highlighting no places for primary pupils, while Gove spends on his gimmicks; and Ed Balls and Rachel Reeves talking living standards and investment in growth, to name a few!

But August is never going to be the time to outline major future policy initiatives – that has to be at conference.  I sometimes worry that our policy review resembles a pregnant panda – it’s been a very long time in the making and no one’s quite sure if there’s anything in there anyway.  At this conference, some eye-catching policies need to break out of the conference centre and resonate more widely.

Last, Ed has the tough job of following last year’s brilliant speech with the next instalment fleshing out his character and beliefs and telling people about the country he wants to lead and how Labour can deliver it. Couple that with some lively media performances from the excellent shadow cabinet in support, some strong policy announcements to exemplify the overall direction and resisting the temptation to air any internal angst in public – and those of us who aren’t making the trip to Brighton might just sit up and take note.